On July 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national real estate development investment and sales from January to June 2018. In the first six months of this year, the national real estate development investment was 5,553.1 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points lower than that in January-May. Among them, residential investment was 3,899 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points.
Judging from the growth rate of investment, after the investment data remained above 10% for three consecutive months, the growth rate of real estate investment in the first half of this year declined slightly, but the growth rate of 9.7% remained high. Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference on national economic operation in the first half of 2018 that real estate investment is expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth in the second half of the year.
Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June 2018, the national real estate development investment was 5,553.1 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from January to May.
The main key to support the continued high-level operation of investment data is the newly started housing area of 958.17 million square meters, an increase of 11.8%, and the growth rate increased by 1 percentage point. Among them, the newly started residential area was 706.11 million square meters, an increase of 15.0%.
Secondly, from January to June, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 110.85 million square meters, up 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.1 percentage points higher than that in January-May.
Mao Shengyong pointed out that in the first half of this year, the growth rate of real estate investment increased by 9.7%. Looking at two leading indicators in the second half of the year, one is the newly started housing area, which is accelerating in the first half of the year, and the other is the accelerated growth of land acquisition area and land acquisition fee. From this situation, real estate investment is expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth in the second half of the year.
Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June, the sales area of commercial housing was 771.43 million square meters, up 3.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in January-May. Among them, the residential sales area increased by 3.2%.
According to another sales data, the sales of commercial housing reached 6,694.5 billion yuan, up by 13.2%, and the growth rate increased by 1.4 percentage points. Among them, residential sales increased by 14.8%.
According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in June 2015, the sales area of this round of real estate market increased by 3.9% year-on-year, representing the starting point of this round of property market outbreak. As of June 2018, the rising cycle of the current real estate market has been as long as 37 months, setting a new record for the longest rising cycle of China real estate.
According to the accumulated data, the sales area of commercial housing in the first half of 2018 was as high as 770 million square meters, and the sales reached 6.69 trillion, all of which set a new record for the same period in history.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the current real estate rising cycle has exceeded 37 months, and the sales in the first half of the year hit a new record. Judging from the market data, it is expected that although the market growth rate will narrow in the second half of 2018, the real estate market will still be at a historical high in 2018.
"Judging from the past cycle, there may be negative growth at present, but it is still relatively firm in the first half of this year, which can also bring back the sales funds of housing enterprises. Similar data also reflects to a large extent that many cities are entering the stage of supply and transaction. " Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said.
Inventory continued to decline, reaching a 47-month low.
Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that by the end of June, the area of commercial housing for sale was 550.83 million square meters, a decrease of 9.27 million square meters compared with the end of May. Among them, the area for sale of residential buildings decreased by 6.42 million square meters, the area for sale of office buildings decreased by 470,000 square meters, and the area for sale of commercial buildings decreased by 1.68 million square meters.
According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, at the end of July 2014, the area of commercial housing for sale was 552.3 million square meters, and the market inventory in June 2018 was 550.83 million square meters. Inventory data has fallen to a 47-month low. It has been lowered for four consecutive years. Overall, the nationwide destocking cycle has been completed.
Mao Shengyong pointed out that from the operation of housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the overall housing prices are still relatively stable. However, since the beginning of this year, housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities have indeed risen relatively high, and the pressure of rising in some hot cities is still relatively high. There are still some structural contradictions in real estate, and some remote areas and areas with relatively high pressure of population outflow still have some stocks. Therefore, the central government put forward "policy and precise regulation due to the city". Judging from the next development of real estate, the central government, on the one hand, further strengthens and perfects macro-control, and at the same time, makes further efforts from the supply side, including accelerating the relevant policies and measures of real estate tax, realizing multi-agent supply and multi-channel guarantee, and accelerating the implementation of a series of supporting policies such as the right to rent, sell and share, so as to better promote the stable and healthy development of real estate, promote the construction of a long-term mechanism, and better realize the basic positioning that "houses are for living, not for speculation".
Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June, real estate development enterprises received 7,928.7 billion yuan in funds, up 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage point from January to May.
Among them, domestic loans were 1,229.2 billion yuan, down by 7.9%; The utilization of foreign capital was 2.8 billion yuan, down 73.1%; Self-raised funds were 2,554.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%; Deposits and advance receipts were 2,612.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5%; Personal mortgage loans reached 1,152.4 billion yuan, down 4.0%.
Zhang Dawei believes that from the perspective of the national real estate market, the mortgage loans in the real estate loan quota have indeed been significantly tightened. Under the circumstance that the market turnover is still at a record high, the mortgage tightening has brought about an obvious upward trend in mortgage interest rates. Restrain irrational house purchase in some markets. In addition, the mortgage tightening is still a trend, and the real estate leverage reduction policy will continue. At present, the mortgage interest rate of buyers’ first homes is divided, and some cities have raised their benchmark by 20%. It will become a trend that the average mortgage interest rate exceeds 6. Real estate development loans and mortgage loans will continue to tighten in the second half of the year.