The rainy day in the south is worse than the miserable competition: you haven’t seen the sun for 72 days and you tell me that the rainy season hasn’t started yet?

China Weather Network News Since December 2018, the sun has wandered in the south, and rainy weather has dominated the screen. Especially in some cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the number of sunshine hours and rainy days has broken the historical record, and cities have expressed their misery. So when will it stop raining in the south? According to meteorologists, the number of rainy days in southern China is likely to be higher this spring.
Cartography/Chen Yujie
According to the statistics from December 1, 2018 to February 25, 2019, the days without sunshine in major cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River all exceeded 50 days, the average sunshine hours were less than 2.5 hours, the average humidity was generally above 75%, and the number of precipitation days was generally 40-60 days. Among them, Changsha won a number of "firsts" and became the "worst" city in this round of continuous rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
"Underwear is the hardest to dry" city-Changsha
In this round of "tragic competition" for big cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Changsha became the most miserable city by virtue of four single events. The four awards are: the average sunshine time per day is the least, the average humidity is the highest, the number of consecutive "dark days" is the longest, and the total number of days with sunshine hours of 0 is the most.
According to the statistics from December 1, 2018 to February 25, 2019, the average sunshine time in Changsha is only 0.88 hours, which is equivalent to only 3.2 days of sunshine in Changsha in the past 87 days. The average humidity in Changsha reaches 86.41%, which is also the most "humid" among the big cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. At the same time, Changsha has a total of 72 days with zero sunshine hours. Among them, from December 19, 2018 to January 20, 2019, Changsha lasted for 33 days. In these two competitions, Changsha was the most miserable.
In view of Changsha’s highest air humidity and the lack of "sunshine", it won the title of "underwear is the hardest to dry" city.
"Rain God’s Second Hometown"-Nanchang
Nanchang won three runners-up and two runners-up in this round of "Bitter Competition" in big cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Statistics from December 1, 2018 to February 25, 2019 show that the average humidity in Nanchang is 83.21%, the average sunshine hours are 1.2 hours, and there are 18 consecutive days without sunshine, ranking second in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. And its rain and snow days and sunshine days of 0 are also ranked third with 62 days and 64 days respectively.
In view of the fact that Nanchang didn’t win the five competitions in the big cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, but each of them entered the top three. With the achievements of Sanya in two seasons, it became the second "miserable" city in comprehensive evaluation, so it was awarded the title of "Rain God’s Second Hometown".
"Dragon King’s Favorite" City-Hangzhou
Hangzhou won the only missed "single champion" in Changsha-"the most rainy and snowy days". Statistics from December 1, 2018 to February 25, 2019 show that there were 66 days of rain and snow in Hangzhou, and Changsha was beaten by two days, becoming the first place in the "Rain and Snow Days Competition".
In addition, Hangzhou also won two medals in sunshine hours. It won the second place with 18 consecutive days of sunshine hours of zero, and became the third place in the list of "no sunshine for 64 days". In view of the fact that Hangzhou has the most "precipitation days", it was awarded the title of "Dragon King’s Favorite" city.
The return date of the sun is not fixed, and the rain is endless.
Since December 2018, there has been the longest rainy (snowy) weather in southern China since 1961. So, when will the rainy weather end? China Weather Network tells you that the return date of the Japanese question is not fixed, and the rain is endless …
The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that there will still be rainy weather in the south in the next ten days, and the precipitation will be too large. The National Climate Center also predicts that due to the impact of El Ni? o events, there may be more rainy days in the southern region in the future spring.
Moreover, as of now, the real rainy season in the south has not yet begun! In early April, South China entered the pre-flood season, which started the rainy season in China. The pre-flood season in South China lasted until mid-June. Later, with the subtropical high moving northward, the rain belt also moved from South China to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Jianghuai area, forming a rainy season, which lasted until mid-July. After the end of June, affected by tropical cyclones and other systems, South China entered the late flood season in South China. In addition, Yunnan is divided into dry and wet seasons, and May to October is also its rainy season.
However, experts remind that because the rainy season is distributed in different time and space, and the rainstorm process is staged, the rain will not stay in the same place all the time, so although the south will experience some rainy periods, the "wandering sun" will always come back. (Text/Zhang Hui Cartography/Zhang Li Chen Yujie Review/Zhang Huiyuan Hu Xiao)
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The lottery prize of 60.35 million yuan will be unclaimed for one month or will be invested in public welfare funds.

  A lottery prize of more than 60 million yuan has been suspended for more than a month and has not been claimed so far. On November 28, 2017, the 2017140th issue of the two-color ball was opened. In the current period, 16 first prizes were awarded, with a single prize of more than 6.03 million yuan. Among them, the first prize of 10 notes came from Fucai Sales Station No.10470400 in Xicheng District, Beijing, and all the first prizes of 10 notes came from a lottery ticket, with a prize of 60.35 million yuan. However, the Beijing Youth Daily reporter learned from people familiar with the matter that the grand prize winner has not yet appeared to receive the award.

  Recently, the reporter of Beiqing Daily visited the lottery shop that broke the grand prize and learned that the winner was an old lottery player at the lottery station, but the staff said that his personal information was inconvenient to announce. The staff said that there is still nearly one month before the deadline for receiving the grand prize, and if there is any abandonment of the prize, the prize will be invested in the public welfare fund.

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  60 million bonus has been unclaimed for a long time.

  On the evening of November 28th, 2017, Fucai two-color ball won the lottery in the No.2017140th issue, with the red balls being 21, 22, 25, 28, 29 and 30, and the blue ball being 08. In the current period, the first prize of 16 bets was awarded, and the single bet bonus was as high as 6.03 million yuan.

  That night, in the Fucai Sales Station located in You ‘anmen Street, Xicheng District, the station claimed that Christina didn’t notice anything special about the lottery that night. With the announcement of the lottery numbers of the two-color ball, the first prize of 10 bets came to Fucai Station in Zhang Haiqing. Interestingly, these 10 jackpots, a total of 60.35 million grand prizes belong to one person.

  However, more than a month has passed since the news of the lottery, and the grand prize winner has not yet appeared to receive the prize. Some netizens speculate that the winner may not know the news of his winning, or he didn’t expect the grand prize to come at all, and accidentally damaged the ticket face.

  The reporter of Beiqing Daily learned that according to the regulations, the effective redemption period of Fucai bonus is 60 days (including 60 days) from the day after the draw. The grand prize of more than 60 million yuan announced on the evening of November 28, 2017 is still within the effective redemption period, and it is not known whether it will eventually be received.

  According to public reports, the abandonment of the Welfare Lottery Award has appeared in Beijing. In 2007, one of the four bets "Seven Stars Lottery" bought by a decoration worker in Beijing won 5 million in the lottery, but after he bought the lottery ticket, he returned to his hometown in Anhui by train to take care of his sick father-in-law, missed the redemption period and lost 5 million.

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  The lottery store recalled that the winner was an old lottery player.

  The ten million prize for the two-color ball comes from Fucai Sales Station in Youanmen Street, Xicheng District, which claims that Christina has been operating here for more than ten years.

  The lottery station is located in the residential building, which is very inconspicuous from the outside, and the interior decoration is also very simple. The lottery number chart is hung on the wall, and there are two lottery players in the house who are absorbed in studying the lottery trend. In the conspicuous position of the sales desk, there is a gold first prize medal.

  Zhang Haiqing told the reporter of Beiqing Daily that the lottery station had only won the second prize before this, and the first prize was the first time. "(November 2017) On the morning of the 29th, I received a phone call from the Welfare Lottery Center in Xicheng District, only then did I know that we had won a ten million grand prize of 10-note two-color balls."

  Because the lottery station in Zhang Haiqing is located in a residential building, most customers who usually patronize are old lottery players. The staff of the lottery station revealed that the winner of the 10 million grand prize was a man who bought lottery tickets here for two or three years, but since the news of winning the prize came out, the man never appeared in the lottery station again.

  The staff recalled that the lottery players who won the first prize were all selected by machine, and a total of 100 yuan was invested in five bets and ten times. "Because the winner’s information involves personal privacy, it is not convenient to disclose it. At present, other lottery players are envious when they hear the news of winning, but no one pays too much attention to whether the bonus is collected."

  extend

  Failure to win the prize within 60 days will be regarded as abandonment of the prize.

  On the afternoon of December 29, 2017, the reporter of Beiqing Daily called the Beijing Welfare Lottery Distribution Center. The staff said that it was not convenient to disclose the personal information of the winners for the sake of protecting the personal privacy of the lottery.

  The staff also introduced that according to Article 25 of the Regulations on Lottery Management, lottery winners should take the winning lottery ticket to the designated place to redeem the prize within 60 natural days from the date of drawing, and those who fail to redeem the prize within the time limit will be regarded as abandoning the prize. Thirty-first provisions, overdue bonuses, into the lottery public welfare fund.

  On January 1st, the reporter of Beiqing Daily learned from people familiar with the matter that it has been more than one month since the first prize of 2017140, and the grand prize winner has not yet received the prize at the designated place. Text/reporter Zhang Xiangmei Intern reporter Zhang Yulin

Insight into the development trend of beauty industry in 2020

Under the general trend of economic downturn, the scale of the beauty industry has remained stable, and online e-commerce, especially social e-commerce channels, has developed rapidly. From the perspective of sub-population, the consumption potential of beauty in Z generation, male and sinking market is huge.

Directory:

  • General situation of beauty industry;
  • Consumption trend of beauty cosmetics crowd;
  • Beauty marketing model and case analysis;
  • Have a good insight into beauty data;
  • Thoughts and suggestions on beauty industry.

In 2019, the retail sales of cosmetics industry in China (above designated size) reached 299.2 billion yuan, with an annual cumulative growth rate of 12.6%.

From 2012 to 2019, the cosmetic market in China showed a steady growth trend, with an annual compound growth rate of 8.0%. In 2019, the cosmetic market in China is expected to reach 425.6 billion yuan.

In 2019, the proportion of skin care products was 53.5%, and the category of cosmetics was slightly higher than that in 2018, accounting for 9.9%.

In 2019, influenced by online shopping and social new retail, the online channels of niche makeup brands rose rapidly. Online, big-name makeup accounts for 34%, and minority makeup accounts for 66%; Online, big-name makeup accounts for 49%, and minority makeup accounts for 51%.

E-commerce channels have risen rapidly, accounting for 27.4% in 2018, surpassing KA (supermarkets) and department stores to become the largest sales channel for cosmetics.

Take Polaiya, a domestic beauty head enterprise, as an example. In recent years, online e-commerce channels have achieved rapid growth, and the proportion of 2019H1 has increased to 46%.

In terms of sub-channels, offline specialty stores (CS stores) and online e-commerce are the main business channels of Polaiya.

With the development of social e-commerce, KOL’s influence has increased, and online celebrity brands such as Perfect Diary and Meimo Elmer have become popular through social planting and word-of-mouth communication.

In 2018, the brand share of cosmetics CR10 in China was 20.0%. Compared with 2012, in 2018, the number and share of domestic brands in T-10 brand have increased. Take skin care products as an example: in 2018, the top 2 skin care brands accounted for 44.6%, including 9 local brands, with a market share of 20.6%.

From 2012 to 2018, the total market share of domestic cosmetic companies ranked among the top 20 increased from 7.6% to 14.1%, with an obvious rising trend.

In 2019, the turnover of 589 domestic beauty brands in Tmall 618 exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the turnover of 183 domestic beauty brands exceeded 1000% year-on-year. Among them, the turnover rate of new brands such as Hollis, Huaxizi, Bingxili and dreamtimes. Perfect Diary reached more than 10 times.

In the beauty crowd, generation Z has the fastest consumption speed, and is more willing to spend on beauty. In 2018, the annual expenditure per capita on beauty products was 1,713 yuan, higher than other age groups.

Compared with the post-90 s, the post-95 s prefer cosmetics, and the consumption of cosmetics accounts for 35%; After 90, it is more focused on skin care products, and skin care consumption accounts for 50%.

  • From 2016 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of men’s cosmetics retail in China reached 13.5%. In 2019, the scale of men’s cosmetics market in China reached 19 billion yuan, accounting for 4.5% of the market share of cosmetics in China.
  • In 2018, the consumption rate of Tmall male beauty cosmetics was faster, and the rate of male-only brands exceeded 50% for two consecutive years. The fastest growth rate was men’s emulsion cream and men’s makeup.
  • Basic cleansing and facial cream are the main skin care products consumed by men, and they remain stable. Men’s make-up is a long category, with a year-on-year growth rate of 89% in 2018.

  • In recent years, the trend of high-end cosmetics in China has risen, and the growth rate of high-end cosmetics is obviously faster than that of mass cosmetics.
  • Driven by the upgrading of consumption and brand awareness, the post-1995 generation has become a potential group of high-end beauty consumption. From March 2018 to March 2019, Tmall had more than 50 million post-90s cosmetics, and luxury beauty products such as MAC, Estee Lauder, YSL, Givenchy and Hailan Mystery became the favorite high-end brands for post-90s.

In 2019, the online consumer groups of cosmetics in China are growing day by day. The main groups of online consumers come from second-tier cities, and the number of cities in the fourth-tier and below has expanded significantly.

In 2019, Tmall 618 data showed that nearly half of the orders for more than 100 million items came from third-to sixth-tier cities. Two days before 618, the sales of Jugoshen beauty products from cities below the third tier increased by 143% year-on-year. In 2019, the online consumption speed of young people’s beauty care in small towns reached 38%, far exceeding the speed of 16% in online cities.

In 2018, the number of brands of skin care products and make-up products increased by more than 20% compared with 2016.

Consumers spend more and more money on beauty products, and the frequency of purchasing cosmetics and the number of brands continue to rise every year.

Consumers began to pay attention to the ingredients and efficacy behind the products, and the brand targeted the development of ingredient products and marketing promotion, which caused widespread discussion in social media.

The number of products named after the whitening ingredient "nicotinamide" grew the fastest, with an increase of 752.63% in 2018 compared with 2017.

The traffic entrance of cosmetics marketing in China has been switched from CCTV-TV-Taobao-social platform in turn. The rise of social platforms has made marketing from centralized content production to "crowdsourcing creativity", and brands have achieved a new round of growth through cross-platform, cross-circle and cross-border marketing layout.

More and more consumers get information about beauty products through social media to make better content planting and shopping decisions.

Platforms such as short video/live broadcast not only provide a more direct interactive form for beauty KOL, but also provide consumers with a convenient experience of watching and buying.

More and more beauty brands put on WeChat social advertisements. In 2016-2017, the average frequency of putting on friends circle advertisements in the beauty industry increased by 81%. At the same time, more than 61% of beauty brands will continue to put on WeChat WeChat official account advertisements throughout the year to maintain brand exposure.

Personal beauty care is the most KOL category in Tik Tok/Aauto Quicker platform. KOL marketing game of short beauty video mainly includes planting grass to bring goods, buying while watching, and offline experience, which brings different experiences to fans, such as early adopters, makeup artist, and evaluating the drying list.

  • Perfect Diary creates explosions through high-density innovative social marketing, and sales have exploded since 2019.
  • The marketing channel of Perfect Diary is mainly Xiaohongshu, and the marketing strategy is to focus on small and medium-sized KOL, and focus on promoting 1-2 products in each period to create explosive products.

With short vibrato videos as the breakthrough point, Polaiya cooperated with a large number of KOL to spread and bring goods, and at the same time, combined with the promotion on content platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Weibo, the volume of products was rapidly enlarged. In July 2019, the sales volume of Polaiya’s "bubble mask" ranked first among Tmall mask products in July.

In the Tik Tok account cooperated by Polaiya, the best communication effect is to shake a good thing, and male KOL’s exaggerated video commentary has more visual impact and communication.

Half an acre of flower fields has been put into cooperation with a large number of talents and MCN institutions, and brand-related topics on the vibrato platform have received hundreds of millions of broadcasts.

The content is mainly about product evaluation, celebrities with the same style and talented people planting grass, which quickly gained a large number of young users in Weibo and Xiaohongshu.

Cross-border co-branding is the preferred marketing method of beauty brands. Guochao Cosmetics captures consumers’ hearts by creating high-value products with artistic and cultural connotations through co-branding.

Pan-IP co-branding directly broadens the brand’s consumer groups, and creative cross-border collision can trigger extensive discussion and dissemination in social media, further strengthen consumers’ awareness of brands and products, and increase product sales.

The store has added professional intelligent equipment to provide consumers with beauty services such as skin testing, facial/hand care, eyebrow trimming and makeup trial.

Service and experience are the core competitiveness of offline stores. The upgrading of experience space and service items attracts consumers to try in depth in the store, prolongs the consumption experience time and enhances the user experience and stickiness.

Shopping guide is the key contact point for enterprises to connect with consumers. BA has professional knowledge and rich sales experience, and its personal charm brings its own online celebrity temperament to transform customers.

Merrill Lynch Beauty, a chain brand of cosmetics collection, launched a live shopping guide by using the live broadcast. In two months, the live broadcast room rose by over 90,000 yuan, and the monthly sales increased by nearly 20%. The related orders generated by the live broadcast orders were nearly dry.

The COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019 disrupted the production order and sales rhythm of China’s beauty industry, and both physical retail and online retail were greatly impacted.

Under the epidemic situation, live broadcast and private domain traffic have become "quick-acting rescue pills" and online opening tools for many enterprises, such as Afu Essential Oil Single Brand Store and Yintai Department Store Group.

After tasting the "sweetness", Hu B Jinmeng cosmetics chain and other enterprises regard it as their new long point and the second curve to start their business.

Afu Essential Oil, a leading brand of essential oil and beauty cosmetics in China, has more than 50 counters nationwide, and only 15 stores have opened due to the epidemic.

During the epidemic, Afu essential oil mobilized more than 400 shopping guides and trainers to broadcast live at home. On Valentine’s Day, Afu essential oil sold 80,000+in one-hour live broadcast through the live broadcast tool, and the conversion rate was as high as 12%.

During the epidemic period, the special activities of Yintai’s major brands were announced and drained to Miaojie APP through BA’s circle of friends to precipitate private domain traffic. Among them, BA can get a 1% commission for sharing Miaojie goods and reaching a deal. The 24-hour "non-snoring" Miaojie APP provides online traffic for merchants to help them ease inventory pressure.

From February 7th, Yintai invited nearly famous BA to return to work at home through Taobao live broadcast and Miaojie. The sales generated by a BA live broadcast is equivalent to working in a store for a week.

Jinmeng Cosmetics Store, one of the top 100 beauty chain stores in Hubei, is mainly located in the hardest hit areas such as Hubei and Jiangxi. In a difficult situation, it readjusted its strategy, temporarily set up a live broadcast project team, and mobilized the store to broadcast live at home for 12 hours for eight days.

According to statistics, during the Valentine’s Day activities, the cumulative drainage of Jinmeng makeup live room reached 100,000 person-times, and the total sales exceeded 880,000, which reached 95% of the sales of its offline stores in just three days.

Since Q1, 2018, the sales of Zanzan Beauty Cosmetics have maintained rapid growth, which is much faster than the retail sales of cosmetics.

The number of users and the per capita purchase frequency of Zanzan Beauty Cosmetics continue to grow, which is the main driving force for the rapid growth of Zanzan Beauty Cosmetics sales.

There is an obvious sinking trend of consumers who like beauty cosmetics, and the proportion of users in third-tier and below cities has increased significantly.

Zanzan distribution platform helps beauty merchants to connect with media, small B shopkeepers and other channels, and expand sales channels through WeChat social communication, and sales continue to grow.

From the sales category of Zan distribution market, the sales of skin care account for the highest proportion, but the sales of cosmetics are fast.

Since 2019, more and more beauty businesses have sold goods through live broadcast, and there are praises for the GMV high-speed broadcast business, and the conversion rate of live broadcast transactions is higher than that of the broader market.

The proportion of cities with four-tier and below users placing orders for beauty live broadcast is significantly higher than that of beauty overall, and the Top5 provinces with the most orders are Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning and Henan.

Under the general trend of economic downturn, the scale of the beauty industry has remained stable, and online e-commerce, especially social e-commerce channels, has developed rapidly. From the perspective of sub-population, the consumption potential of beauty in Z generation, male and sinking market is huge.

Thanks to the diversification of consumers’ choice of beauty brands, and social media has gradually become an important channel for users to obtain information, we attach importance to the rise of domestic products and cutting-edge beauty brands operated by social channels.

With the rapid rise of traffic portals on social platforms, the KOL marketing model of social delivery, graphic/short video has emerged. More and more beauty brands make explosions and release new products through short video/live broadcast platforms.

The epidemic has significantly accelerated the online and offline integration of beauty physical stores. It is suggested that beauty shops should pay more attention to online social e-commerce channels, and use shopping guide distribution, live selling, and social channels to strengthen connections with customers, which will bring performance.

 

Author: E-commerce operation little prince, WeChat WeChat official account: E-commerce operation little prince.

This article was originally published by @ e-commerce operation little prince. Everyone is a product manager. Reprinting is prohibited without permission.

The title map comes from Unsplash and is based on CC0 protocol.

Where is the limit and future of real estate?

The four major trading markets, namely, stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and real estate, have long been named as "the four lifelines of national finance", which are an important part of the national economy and an important source of residents’ wealth income.

But there was a saying in the market:Ten crises, nine real estate!

This is because there have been too many "crisis killings" caused by real estate in the past few decades.

Specifically:

In 1991, the Japanese government took the initiative to burst the real estate bubble by raising interest rates sharply and banning loans from the real estate industry, which led to a sharp drop in Japanese house prices, and then quickly triggered a crash in the Japanese stock market, leading to the emergence of Japan’s "disappearing 30 years." It can be seen that up to now, Japan’s housing prices and stock indexes have not returned to the high level of that year;

After 2000, influenced by the Internet bubble in the United States, the Federal Reserve adopted a large-scale fiscal expansion policy, which led to excessive market liquidity and excess liquidity flowing into the real estate market, which caused the US house price to rise by more than 80% in four years, resulting in a serious bubble in the US real estate market at that time.

From 2004 to 2006, the United States took the initiative to raise interest rates to control inflation, which punctured the real estate bubble. Subsequently, American residents defaulted on loans frequently, which led to a large number of bad loans in banks, which in turn triggered the "subprime mortgage crisis" and caused a more serious impact on the global economy.

Therefore, the core reason of "subprime mortgage crisis" is also the transmission influence of the collapse of American real estate prices on the financial system.

In addition to the above two classic cases, similar to the Great Depression in 1929 and the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, the real estate crisis broke out and then triggered the financial and economic crisis.

If the laws of these crises in history are analyzed in detail, we can find that there are amazing commonalities and similar conduction chains between them:

Economic recession-government’s stimulus policy-central bank’s interest rate cut-abundant liquidity-real estate bubble inflation-high inflationary pressure-government’s austerity policy-central bank’s interest rate increase-tight liquidity-real estate bubble collapse-crisis broke out and the economy declined.

It can be seen that behind the so-called "ten crises and nine real estates", it reflects the "bad consequences" caused by the government’s excessive intervention in the market and market regulation.

There are no assets in the market that only rise but not fall, but for the government, its tolerance for economic downturn is extremely low. Out of political needs (GDP growth), most officials will take excessive stimulus measures to stimulate the economy in order to get it."False prosperity".

Why does the real estate crisis easily turn into an economic crisis?

Then, how did the real estate crisis evolve into a financial crisis or even an economic crisis?

Let’s take the economic data of the United States as an example to see how much impact real estate has on the macro-economy.

First of all, from the perspective of residents’ assets: in the past 30 years, the average level of American real estate in the total assets of residents was 27.4%.In other words, real estate accounts for more than a quarter of the total assets of American residents, which is already a very high proportion.

If we switch the perspective to the proportion of non-financial assets, this proportion will rise further. In the past 30 years, the average proportion of real estate in non-financial assets of American residents was 81.4%.In other words, real estate accounts for more than 80% of the total assets of American residents, which directly affects the total wealth of residents.

Once the wealth of residents shrinks seriously, it will inevitably affect their willingness to consume, which will lead to economic recession.

Secondly, from the perspective of residents’ liabilities, this situation will become more and more serious. In the past 30 years, long-term mortgage loans accounted for 71.8% of American residents’ liabilities. In other words, more than 70% of residents’ liabilities are concentrated in the real estate side. Once the economic recession, residents’ income decline, residents’ solvency is limited, and the value of superimposed real estate falls sharply, then there will be a large-scale loan default phenomenon, which will then evolve from a real estate crisis to a financial crisis or even an economic crisis.

It is precisely because the real estate industry is so extensive that the national government will not allow large-scale collapse of the real estate industry (except Japan), and most of them will save the real estate crisis through a series of means. It can be seen that before the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States (2006), the proportion of American real estate industry in its GDP continued to decline. After the crisis broke out, the proportion of American real estate in its GDP rose rapidly from 11.1% to 12.2%; On the contrary, the financial industry in the United States has been significantly impacted, and its proportion in GDP has dropped from 7.6% to 6.8%.

That is to say, although there were "ten crises and nine real estates", by the time the crisis really broke out, the real estate industry had already "gone to waste its clothes and hidden its merits and reputation", leaving the banking and financial industry alone in a "messy situation". Under the leverage effect, there will be systematic risks in the banking and financial industry, which will lead to a greater crisis.

Think carefully and be extremely afraid-Why is real estate "sought after" by capital?

The return on investment of real estate, why the house price has been rising, and the bursting of overseas financial bubbles is also caused by real estate.

We know that the real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, and every "big water release" will be accompanied by the rapid rise of housing prices, so why is real estate so sought after by capital?

There are four main reasons:

First of all, real estate (especially high-quality real estate) is just the need of residents’ life.There are at least two rigid housing needs in a person’s life, one is the demand for housing generated by marriage between 20 and 30; The other time is the demand for replacement houses before the age of 40-50 (in exchange for better and better property). With the birth of a large number of people every year, the market demand for real estate is continuous.

Secondly, the risk of real estate withdrawal is relatively low.As the ballast stone of the national economy, the real estate industry cannot fluctuate greatly in principle. Once the house price falls beyond expectations, it will have a serious impact on the economy, and it will also usher in public administrative intervention and regulation, which also leads to a relatively small pressure on the retreat of house prices relative to other asset prices.

Thirdly, the return on investment in real estate is relatively high.The return on investment in the real estate industry is mainly divided into two parts. One part is the return on investment brought about by the rise in housing prices (except in some countries), and the overall housing prices are rising year by year; The other is that real estate can be rented to obtain a relatively stable cash flow return. Therefore, on the whole, the comprehensive rate of return on investment in real estate is relatively high among all assets.

Finally, the holding cost of real estate is relatively low.Except for some countries that levy high property taxes, the global real estate holding cost is relatively low, which is relatively favorable among many passive income assets (such as fund custody fees and stamp duty).

Therefore, on the whole, real estate not only has continuous rigid demand, but also has three asset characteristics of low risk, high return and low holding cost, so it is not surprising that it is sought after by capital.

Therefore, in the context of loose money, capital will be relatively more favored in the real estate industry, which will greatly raise housing prices.

This is also the root of the real estate bubble!

Four fission stages of four types of housing enterprises in China

From the microscopic point of view, while the real estate bubble is forming, the excessive leverage of housing enterprises is also an important factor inducing the real estate crisis.

Chi Guangsheng, chief real estate & fixed income analyst of Essence Securities, wrote the book "Through Prosperity-The Limit and Future of Real Estate", which described in detail the four periods of the development of real estate enterprises in China and four types of radical real estate enterprises under the development of the real estate industry. This can help us "see the micro-knowledge"-reveal the "all beings" in the macro environment.

According to teacher Chi Guangsheng’s classification, China’s real estate enterprises are divided into four periods:

The first stage: before 2003-the initial stage.At this time, the domestic real estate market was in its infancy, and the policy also encouraged the development of real estate. Many housing enterprises that we are familiar with now were established in that year. At that time, the debt scale of housing enterprises increased rapidly, but the overall leverage level was not high, and most of the liabilities were below 50%.

The second stage: 2004-2013-development period.Encouraged by the policy, housing enterprises ushered in the period of expansion, and the expansion of state-owned enterprises was obviously greater than that of state-owned enterprises. Large-scale housing enterprises began to make a nationwide layout, cooperative land acquisition gradually rose, market concentration rose rapidly, and the leading tendency of housing enterprises appeared. At this time, although the leverage ratio of housing enterprises is still rising significantly, the overall level is controllable.

The third stage: 2014-2019-expansion period.Mr. Chi Guangsheng believes that expanding scale, competing for ranking, fast turnover, high leverage, cooperative land acquisition, sinking soil reserves and lax financing discipline are the mainstream development models of housing enterprises in 2014-2019.

At this stage, we can see that the amount of additional financing for housing enterprises has risen rapidly to the historical peak (the amount of additional financing reached 176.84 billion yuan in 2015).

After 2017, the issuance of US dollar bonds by housing enterprises began to increase substantially, ABS financing also began to rise, and the financial situation of housing enterprises began to deteriorate rapidly.

The fourth stage: after 2020-adjustment period.Under the restriction of the policy of "three red lines" and "two centralized loans", the development speed of housing enterprises began to slow down obviously, private enterprises were hit by liquidity and began to enter the "winter" mode, and state-owned enterprises also began to slow down their expansion and focus on steady operation.

In this macro environment, four types of radical housing enterprises have emerged, which constitutes the "chaos" of the real estate industry now-

The first category, contrarian expansion housing enterprises:Under the background of the slowdown in the growth rate of commercial housing sales in 2016 and the shift in the financing policy of housing enterprises in 2018, this type of housing enterprises still expand their land acquisition against the trend and increase their land reserves, resulting in their high leverage ratio and are currently in a liquidity dilemma.

The second category, impatient and aggressive housing enterprises:This type of real estate enterprises also increased their leverage expansion when the macro environment changed, but they mainly expanded to low-energy cities in the third and fourth tier, trying to seize the national market. However, after the tightening of the financing environment, they also suffered a serious impact and their financial situation deteriorated rapidly.

The third category, debt imbalance housing enterprises:This type of company relies heavily on overseas debt. Under the background of deteriorating financing environment, its debt fragility is significantly higher than that of other companies with diversified debt structures, and the short-term debt repayment pressure is enormous.

The fourth category, over-capitalized housing enterprises:This type of company prefers to introduce high-cost war investment and high-interest loan financing to expand its land reserve on a large scale. It is the enterprise with the strongest risk preference among the four types of enterprises. It practices the "rolling profit model" by financing the whole society through diversified projects, which is also the main reason for its current liquidity trap.

On the whole, it is an inevitable trend of the periodic development of China’s real estate enterprises that the real estate industry is "all living things" at present, and the overly radical expansion strategy is an important reason for the "chaos" in the real estate industry to some extent.

Cycle after cycle-where is the way out of the real estate cycle?

With the development of the real estate market, sinceSince 2008, China has experienced four real estate cycles:

The first round: Q3 2008-Q1 2010 (upward), Q2 2010-Q1 2012 (downward);
The second round: Q1 2012-Q1 2013 (upward) and Q1 2013-Q3 2014 (downward);
The third round: Q3 2014-Q3 2016 (upward), Q3 2016-Q3-2020 (downward);

The fourth round: Q1 in 2020-Q3 in 2020 (upward), Q3 in 2020 till now.

From the perspective of international experience, the duration of the real estate cycle (also known as the Kuznets cycle) is 15-20 years, of which the market of the American real estate cycle is about 16 years, of which the expansion phase is about 11 years and the contraction phase is about 5 years.

It is a medium-long cycle that is longer than Kichin cycle, but shorter than Kangbo cycle. Its main measure is based on population process and building construction intensity, which was put forward by economist simon smith kuznets.

Although the real estate cycle has different forms and lengths in different countries, it is certain that there is indeed a "cycle" in real estate.

With the deep adjustment of China’s real estate industry at present, the market’s expectation for real estate has dropped to freezing point, so where is the way out for future real estate?

This is the core topic of this master course!

On this Saturday, August 12th, 2023, Wall Street invited Chi Guangsheng, chief real estate & fixed income analyst of Essence Securities.Master course on real estate theme will be launched, from macro to micro, from finance to practice, from policy to market. Mr. Chi Guangsheng will spend 4-5 hours in one class to explain the real estate market in China.

Chi Guangsheng is the chief analyst of Anxin Securities’ real estate & fixed income. He has 6 years of experience in real estate project development and operation in real estate enterprises. He has not only managed projects, but also done research, and has published many reports and papers independently in Financial Research, International Financial Research and China Money Market. It can be said that his working experience has always been a close observer in the real estate industry chain, and he will share his years of research, observation, thinking and understanding of real estate with everyone in the course.

The course is divided into four modules, the macro chapter focuses on housing sales, the policy chapter focuses on real estate policy, the micro chapter focuses on housing enterprise behavior, and the asset chapter focuses on asset pricing.When studying Taoism, we should keep abreast of the changes of the times.

Has the commercial housing market in China reached its limit? Will China real estate repeat the Japanese mistakes? What is more important than "housing and not speculating"? How to fully understand China’s real estate policy? What inspiration did the defaulting housing enterprises give us? What step has the liquidity dilemma of housing enterprises developed to? What impact will real estate changes have on the pricing of large-scale assets? ….. These questions and implications will be discussed in depth in the course.

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Zotye Auto: The pre-loss in 2023 is 750 million yuan.

Securities Times E Company News, Zotye Automobile (000980) released its performance forecast on the evening of January 29th, and its net profit in 2023 is expected to be 750 million yuan-900 million yuan, compared with 910 million yuan in the same period last year, which narrowed the year-on-year loss. In 2023, the company’s vehicle business is still recovering, and the sales volume is small. At the same time, the company plans to make provision for asset impairment and bad debts totaling about 300 million yuan to 400 million yuan, so the overall performance is still at a loss.

Huaxia International Fashion Week ended successfully in London, England.

  Recently, Huaxia International Fashion Week, sponsored by the Organizing Committee of Huaxia International Fashion Week and undertaken by Henan Kangsheng Fashion Culture Industry Group, came to a successful conclusion in London Station, England. The event is a world-class fashion feast planned by Milan and co-organized by Shanghai Xinmo Fashion, Shanghai Lingxiu Culture and Art, Yisen Culture, Xuanyue Art Center, Anhui Gaoding Fashion Week Organizing Committee and Henan Beiye Culture Media Co., Ltd.

  Producer Li Kang, director Zhuang Ming and director Zhao Mengyuan, as well as executive directors Chen Xinyun, Wu Jiqing, Wang Xinyue and Zhang Xiaolu made a grand release in London, England on October 6, 2023, bringing an unforgettable feast of combining Chinese and Western cultures to fashion lovers around the world.

  On October 5th, the director team of the Organizing Committee of Huaxia International Fashion Week took the lead in arriving in the UK, and presented a classic and grand fashion feast for the audience in advance together with China’s well-known Gaoding clothing brands, such as unforgettable, Gu Axin, Jiayi and Mikan. The success of this Fashion Week not only shows the vitality and creativity of China’s fashion industry, but also builds a unique platform for cultural exchanges between China and the West.

  With its unique planning and organization, Huaxia International Fashion Week London Station has successfully attracted the attention and participation of many domestic and foreign fashion brands. The organizing committee of Huaxia International Fashion Week, the organizer of the event, and Henan Kangsheng Fashion Culture Industry Group, through cooperation with world-class teams such as Milan and Shanghai, laid a solid foundation for the success of Fashion Week.

  At the press conference, designers and models from China showed a series of amazing fashion works. Through cooperation with Huaxia International Fashion Week, brands such as unforgettable, Guaxin, Jiayi and Mikan have shown the unique design and excellent craftsmanship of China Gaoding clothing to the global audience. This is not only an affirmation of China’s fashion industry, but also an exploration of the integration of Chinese and Western cultures.

  Producer Mr. Li Kang said: "We hope that through Huaxia International Fashion Week, we can present the world with a unique feast that combines the fashion elements of the East and the West. This is a platform for different cultures to communicate and convey the charm of Chinese culture through the language of fashion. " His words show that Fashion Week is not only a fashion show, but also a bridge for cultural exchange.

  The success of Fashion Week cannot be separated from the careful planning and undertaking of Henan Kangsheng Fashion Culture Industry Group. This group has won numerous awards in the development of cultural industry and contributed to the rise of China fashion industry. Close cooperation with international teams makes the success of Huaxia International Fashion Week in London even more precious.

  The success of Huaxia International Fashion Week lies in the combination of China’s fashion culture and international fashion trends, presenting a unique fashion feast for the audience. This is also a powerful proof that "Made in China" has made its mark on the global fashion stage. Fashion Week provides an international stage for China designers to show their talents, and also provides an opportunity for international fashion brands to understand the China market.

  In this feast of cultural exchange between China and the West, the audience not only appreciated the beauty of fashion, but also deeply felt the collision and integration of cultures. The success of Huaxia International Fashion Week in London will undoubtedly lay a solid foundation for future cultural exchanges between China and the West and cooperation in fashion industry, and become a dazzling pearl on the international fashion stage.

China has the second largest number of graduate students in the world.

Interface journalist | Chen Zhenfang

In 2022,ChinaThe number of graduate students studying has reached 3.65 million, ranking second in the world in total scale..During the ten years from 2012 to 2022,The proportion of professional degrees awarded increased from 32.29% to 56.4%.

On December 19th, the Ministry of Education held."Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of Classification of Academic Degree and Professional Degree Postgraduate Education" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions")Press conference to disclose the above data.

Department of Degree Management and Postgraduate Education, Ministry of EducationPoint out: "At present, the pattern of classified development of academic degree and professional degree graduate education has basically taken shape, and a system with China characteristics and coordinated development of two types and three degrees has been initially established.. "

In 1978,ChinaPostgraduate enrollment resumed. In 1980, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) promulgated the Regulations on Academic Degrees and established the academic degree system. It has been more than 40 years since then. In 1990,ChinaBegan to implement the professional degree education system.

in recent years, studyNumber of specialized studentsgraduallycatch up with and surpassXueshuo,Two types of talentshowThe topic of cultivation alsotriggereducational circlesAnd societyattach importance to.

Take graduate students in Tsinghua University as an example, academic degrees and professional degrees account for 55% and 45% respectively. Among them, master students are mainly professional degrees, accounting for more than 70%, while doctoral students are just the opposite, with academic degrees as the mainstream, accounting for 87%.

How to form a classified development pattern of graduate education, improve the setting of disciplines and specialties, and pay equal attention to two types of degree education have become the focus of this meeting.

The Catalogue of Postgraduate Education Disciplines released in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the Catalogue) shows that changing the previous catalogue of professional degree categories is the presentation method of the schedule of the discipline catalogue, and integrating the first-level disciplines and professional degree categories with similar main knowledge bases into the corresponding disciplines, highlighting the equal importance of training two types of talents.

The Catalogue further enriched the categories of professional degrees, and the number increased from 47 to 67.,The number of doctoral authorization points for academic degrees has doubled compared with ten years ago..

Among them,The total number of professional degree authorization points has increased from 37.6% to 44.2% ten years ago, and the number of doctoral degree authorization points has tripled..

The goal is that by 2027, the development of two types of degree classification will achieve pattern changes, the governance system of degree and postgraduate education will continue to improve, and the governance capacity will be significantly improved.”《Opinions "Point out.

First of all,Systematically promote the development of academic degree and professional degree classification.

Second, we mustIt is clear that both academic degree and professional degree graduate education are important ways for the country to cultivate high-level innovative talents, and the two types of degrees are equally important, and training units should pay equal attention to them.

finally,Distinguish the key layout direction of the two types of degree programs, adhere to the high starting point layout of academic degrees, and focus on the layout of doctoral degree authorization points to vigorously support the original innovation..

Professional degrees adhere to the demand-oriented, new master’s degree awarding units only carry out professional degree postgraduate education in principle, and the new master’s degree authorization points are mainly professional degree authorization points..

ideastillpoint outIn the fields with both academic degrees and professional degrees, emphasis should be placed on the distribution of professional degree authorization points to fully support the industry and regional development.

The meeting also stressed that it is necessaryStrengthen the differentiated requirements of positioning, standards, enrollment, training, evaluation and teachers.Especially inIn the enrollment stage, we distinguish the key aspects of the two types of students’ enrollment, and emphasize the participation of industry and enterprise experts in professional degree enrollment.

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Football (sports)

On the same day, in the tenth round of the Italian Football League in the 2023-2024 season, Inter Milan beat Rome 1-0 at home.

On October 29th, Inter Milan coach Inzaghi was on the sidelines. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Alberto Lingoria)

On October 29th, Inter Milan player Thuram (left) scored a goal in the game. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Alberto Lingoria)

On October 29th, Inter Milan player Thuram (left) competed with Roma player Ndika. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Alberto Lingoria)

On October 29th, Inter Milan player lautaro (left) competed with Roma player Lu Kaku. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Alberto Lingoria)

On October 29th, Inter Milan player lautaro (right) competed with Roma player Mancini. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Alberto Lingoria)

Beauty trend in 2023: functional skin care products will continue to stand up. How do domestic brands seize the control of C position?

Recently, the "2023 Beauty Personal Care Increase Track Report" was released to discuss the three major beauty personal care tracks with new increase. As one of the new tracks, the functional skin care track has increased from 6.9 billion yuan in 2016 to 28.3 billion yuan in 2021, showing its continuous vitality. It has made breakthroughs in breaking the monopoly of overseas brands, innovating growth opportunities, and digging deep into the moat of brands, which has brought positive signals to the overall declining cosmetics market in 2022 and expectations for the new consumption cycle.

The picture comes from the "Insight Report on the Trend of Functional Skin Care Products under the Empowerment of Science and Technology"

Breaking the monopoly of foreign domestic brands and attacking the high-end track

Functional skin care products can be roughly divided into three categories: functional skin care products, dermatological skin care products and medical dressings. Among them, the largest proportion of functional skin care products are skin care products that have been verified by experiments or clinics and have certain efficacy and safety. Dermatological skin care products are nursing products suitable for skin sensitivity and other issues, while medical dressings belong to the category of medical devices.

Looking back at the development of the domestic functional skin care products market, it is also a competition between domestic brands and overseas brands, which started from overseas brands and broke out in the breakthrough of domestic brands. In 1998, international brands such as Vichy and Yayang entered China, which opened the blue ocean market of functional skin care products in China. From 2016 to 2021, the functional skin care market increased from 6.9 billion yuan to 28.3 billion yuan.

According to the data of Toubao Research Institute, the market share of domestic functional skin care brands increased from 10.7% to 27.3% from 2014 to 2022. And since 2017, the market growth rate of functional skin care in China has always been higher than the overall market growth rate of skin care products, among which the rise of domestic brands has contributed greatly. Domestic brands are breaking the monopoly of overseas brands, and the functional skin care track shows a trend of localization.

In 2018, Huaxi Bio, which started with bioactive raw materials, announced that it would make every effort to build "functional skin care products". Under the strategic guidance of "multi-brand and multi-channel", it ran out four core brands, namely Runbaiyan, Quadi, Mibelle and BM Muscle Activity, and became the main player on the track of functional skin care products. Together with Betani, Polaiya, shanghai jahwa and other enterprises, it provoked the strength of the rise of domestic products.

Nowadays, domestic functional skin care products are no longer the "body double" of international brands, but are turning to the high-end track. In 2022, in the category of beauty and skin care of Tmall double 11, Polaiya, Winona, Quadi and Nature Hall were among the TOP20, and Runbaiyan was promoted to the Billion Club in the three major e-commerce channels of Tmall, Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker. Among them, Polaiya early C late A, Runbaiyan barrier conditioning secondary throwing, Quadi "blue throwing" essence, Winona special care essence, etc. have achieved a strong position in the high-end category track with a stronger sense of value, and consumers also realize that domestic products are advanced by strength.

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative import volume of beauty cosmetics and toiletries in the first 11 months of 2022 decreased by 11.2% compared with the same period of last year, which reflected consumers’ support for domestic skin care products, and domestic brands also gained consumers’ trust to a greater extent.

Heavy investment in scientific research provides sufficient kinetic energy for the development of domestic products

Because functional skin care has its own genes to enhance the efficacy of products, it emphasizes digging deep into scientific mechanism and pursuing safety and efficiency, so the research and development cycle and investment are higher than those of ordinary skin care products. At present, there is a trend of high concentration in the field of functional skin care products, and the strong are always strong. Observing the head enterprises such as Huaxi Bio, Betani and Polaiya, "technology" seems to be the main part of the involution.

The data shows that in the first three quarters of 2022, the R&D investment of Huaxi Bio, Betaine and Polaiya accounted for 6.42%, 4.37% and 2.41% respectively. The R&D expenditure of Huaxi Bio in the first three quarters reached 277 million yuan, up more than 40% year-on-year, Betaine was 126 million yuan, and Polaiya was 95 million yuan. The R&D expenditure of the three companies was in the forefront of the industry.

Heavy research and development, the scientific and technological strength of enterprises continues to consolidate. Taking Huaxi Bio as an example, following the enterprise development logic of "science → technology → product → brand", and strengthening investment in basic research and applied basic research, six R&D platforms and the world’s largest pilot transformation platform have been built to help transform scientific research achievements. Huaxi Bio-Shanghai Skin Care R&D Center has domestic leading technologies such as inspection, biology and efficacy evaluation. The first "Key Laboratory for Quality Control of Cosmetic Raw Materials" of the State Food and Drug Administration is located in Huaxi Bio. Huaxi Bio has also carried out medical research and co-creation with Shanghai Dermatology Hospital and other hospitals, participated in the compilation of expert consensus on the clinical application of hyaluronic acid in dermatology, and promoted the scientific selection and rational application of hyaluronic acid in dermatology.

Huaxi biological research and development personnel

Winona, a subsidiary of Betaine, carries out product research and development and technological innovation based on dermatology theory, with outstanding plant extraction technology. It has R&D centers in Kunming and Shanghai, Yunnan, and has a series of unique active star plant ingredients. Polaiya focuses on high-efficiency anti-oxidation and anti-wrinkle technology.

In the cutting-edge technology synthetic biology known as the "new energy" of national cosmetics, Huaxi Bio has been laid out as early as 2018. In the past two years, Shiseido and L ‘Oreal have also entered the market. At present, Huaxi Bio is the "only" synthetic bio-industrial chain enterprise in China, which integrates the three capabilities of bio-research and innovation, pilot and industrial transformation, and market transformation, and will provide strong support for the innovation of raw materials and end products. In 2022, Betani Synthetic Biology Center was established, and Polaiya participated in the B round of financing of Zhongke Xinyang, an innovative and intelligent synthetic biology enterprise. Synthetic biotechnology has made domestic brands and international brands stand at almost the same starting line, providing new opportunities for domestic brands to overtake international brands.

Innovating its own industrial chain from raw materials to end products to escort quality.

In addition to the "ballast stone" of science and technology, based on the advantages of China’s manufacturing industry, the efforts of domestic enterprises in the industrial chain provide a strong guarantee for the "efficacy and safety" of functional skin care products.

Take Huaxi Bio as an example, it has the ability to operate the whole chain from raw materials to consumer end products, and actively promotes the application of digital and intelligent systems in the total quality management system of cosmetics production. In September, 2022, Huaxi Bio won three awards, namely "National Leading Enterprise in Cosmetic Industry", "National Leading Brand in Cosmetic Industry" and "National Stable Qualified Product in Quality Inspection".

From the demand side, due to the constant changes in consumer demand, such as anti-aging, anti-wrinkle and skin repair, and the improvement of consumers’ access to information channels, the "component party", "efficacy party" and "technology party" were gradually born. Based on this, it is an important opportunity to further solve skin problems and highlight the raw materials, technology and efficacy of products.

The innovation ability of raw materials also determines the competitiveness of end products. Huaxi Bio independently developed and produced more than 100 SKUs of cosmetic grade raw materials such as hyaluronic acid, hydrocodone and ergothionine, which avoided being "stuck in the neck" by foreign countries and provided more space for product innovation. In 2022, Huaxi Bio-cosmetics had new raw materials, such as hydrolyzed zinc hyaluronate, hydrolyzed calcium hyaluronate and N- acetylceramide, which were put on record.

New hyaluronic acid raw materials of Huaxi Bio (part)

In terms of skin care technology, domestic enterprises are still constantly raising the scientific and technological level, such as Runbaiyan, which specializes in hyaluronic acid skin care. INFIHA? Yingfeizhi and hyaluronic acid technology pioneered by it have expanded the efficacy of hyaluronic acid from moisturizing in the past to anti-wrinkle and repair. More possibilities.

In addition, while building product strength, domestic products are constantly strengthening the shaping of brand strength, forming a unique brand culture and values recognized by consumers, thus establishing brand barriers. Run Baiyan, through the "Yan Value Bank Secondary Empty Pipe Recycling Plan", turned the recycled secondary empty pipe into an education fund, which helped rural aesthetic education and enriched the brand connotation of "focus on love"; Betani Public Welfare Fund implements Hope Project for young people in Yunnan Province from the fields of student assistance and biodiversity protection. Polaiya pays attention to the exploration and discussion of women’s issues, and attracts wide attention with a constructive brand attitude.

With the tightening of policy supervision, the constant standardization of production quality management of cosmetics, and the country’s goal of building a "high-end brand" in the cosmetics industry, enterprises in the functional skin care track should not only cash in their product strength with high-quality scientific research strength, but also provide consumers with positive emotional value, thus stabilizing the industry position, so as to establish a solid brand moat in the new consumption wave, enhance brand influence and competitiveness, and become the leading force of domestic products leading the world.

Article source: China Network

Plot+beauty cross-border combination, is the next counterattack opportunity?

The popularity of "Naiti guli" is an important signal, and the cross-border cooperation of plot and beauty can spark different sparks and bring freshness to the audience.

Due to the long-standing information asymmetry in the beauty industry, users have always had a strong demand for beauty content, and beauty reds have become the main force that cannot be ignored in the current KOL short video field.

Some of them focus on product evaluation, some focus on makeup teaching, and some people set up their own beauty brands through content. All kinds of content are either integrated or subdivided in successive elimination iterations, moving towards different development directions.

The author will analyze the advantages and disadvantages of various types of content by taking stock of the existing content types in the KOL short video field, and compare and summarize the creative communication logic and innovation direction of such content.

At present, the beauty content in the KOL field presents a diversified development trend. According to the content form, this paper divides the beauty content into the following three categories:

Evaluation is one of the main types of beauty content, and "Li Jiaqi Austin", a celebrity who started from Taobao Live, is a typical representative. He is a Tik Tok head beauty celebrity with nearly 20 million fans, and each video has hundreds of thousands and millions of likes. He has been in the top15 position of Kasi Data Tik Tok Red Celebrity List for nearly six weeks. His video is devoted to the evaluation of lipstick and planting grass, and conquered the wallets of thousands of female viewers with the magical lines "Oh my god", "My God" and "Buy it".

Tik Tok Redskins "Li Jiaqi Austin" Source: Kasi Data Redskins Details Page

Also doing lipstick color test evaluation is Tik Tok red man "serious girl _ Yan Jiu", and there is also a sentence in her self-positioning "You are not allowed to spend more money", which shows her difference: pursuing high cost performance. In the video, she will show the upper lip effect of the product through color testing, introduce the use experience in detail, and point out the advantages and disadvantages of the product, so that the audience can choose the product that suits them according to their personal needs.

In addition to lipstick evaluation, there are many evaluation contents of other beauty products. The most common one is the evaluation of red people who are mixed with various beauty products. They will not only evaluate various makeup products such as lipstick, foundation and cosmetic, but also evaluate various cleaning and skin care products such as face washers, eye creams and masks.

The biggest advantage of evaluation content is that they directly poke the pain points of users. Because the audience usually can’t experiment one by one in person, but want to know the efficacy and details of various products, they have a strong demand for evaluation content.

The disadvantage of this kind of content is that the threshold is low, and a large number of red people with different professional levels flood in, resulting in uneven content quality and serious homogenization. For the beauty evaluation content, the audience is concerned about the physical display of the product, the use effect, the user’s experience and so on. Although the evaluator’s evaluation and inflammatory words will affect the audience’s decision-making, the audience’s intuitive visual feelings will also affect their judgment to a great extent. Therefore, it is relatively difficult to do outstanding evaluation content.

Makeup teaching is also one of the main types of beauty content, and "witty Dang Mei" is a typical representative of this kind of celebrities. She can easily control the makeup styles of girls, royal sisters, ancient styles and Japanese styles, and I can also switch between "rough" and "cute" freely. honest and frank’s personal characteristics, changeable makeup styles and high face value, which are dominant in the beauty circle, have made her one of the top celebrities in the beauty circle in bilibili.

Bilibili Redskins "Witty Dang Mei" Source: Kasi Data Redskins Details Page

In fact, due to the lack of professionalism, beauty celebrities like "witty Dang Mei" pay more attention to makeup display. Although there will be some tips on dry goods, on the whole, the teaching part is weak, so the threshold requirements are also low.

Since this kind of content is not a serious and rigorous makeup teaching video, the core advantage can only be played in the personal characteristics of the photographer, that is, the personal design, including the personality, language style, appearance and image, voice and other aspects of the photographer. Through the creation of people, we can enhance the audience’s interest in the content and cultivate their trust in the red man. To put it simply, it is not professional enough and interesting.

In addition to the relatively low threshold of evaluation and makeup teaching, dry goods knowledge is also an important part of beauty content.

Take "JUNPING Devil" as an example: his content is characterized by high professionalism, and his professional knowledge such as product composition and efficacy is well analyzed. He also created his own Junping skin care brand and advocated scientific skin care concepts. In 2013, he obtained the certificate of American National Society of Holistic Aromatherapy in NAHA, which also provided him with a strong professional endorsement.

Red man’s own brand means that he is responsible for product and content marketing at the same time, which reduces the unnecessary expenses of all intermediate links to a certain extent. At the same time, the creator (who is also a product manager) can get first-hand user feedback by directly contacting users, making products closer to users’ needs and conducive to producing more targeted and personalized products.

Of course, there are a few celebrities who have successfully created their own brands like "Junping Devil". On the one hand, this kind of content has a very high entry threshold. Without a very professional and profound knowledge reserve, the credibility of content and celebrities will be greatly reduced, and it will be impossible to accumulate the original fan base of self-created brands. On the other hand, if you only rely on fans to buy, and you don’t let the product reputation out of the circle, the sales channel will be very narrow and the risk will be high.

Except for a few cases of creating their own brands like Junping Devil, there are two main types of beauty reds who share knowledge of dry goods:

One is to share practical beauty and skin care skills. For example, Tik Tok Red Man "Dangerous Sweet" will share skills, answer doubts or summarize mine clearance in each video. The main feature of the content is practicality, but the skill of summarizing skills, which makes perfect, has a low entry threshold, so the homogenization is also serious. It is necessary to enhance the content recognition with the help of the photographer’s personal design.

The other category is more professional ingredient analysis, such as "Su La La La is ingredient control" of Tik Tok Red Man, whose content is mainly to analyze the ingredients of products, and put forward different suggestions according to different skin types by comparing the ingredients of different products. This kind of content belongs to pure dry goods, but it requires a high level of cognition for the audience, and its appreciation is poor, so the ordinary audience can easily feel bored.

The above three types of beauty content are relatively common. On the whole, all kinds of content are already in the competitive Red Sea field. What other beauty content types with great potential still have great room for development, waiting for practitioners to explore?

The author found that the drama beauty content represented by Tik Tok red man "Naiti guli" may be a new opportunity.

Drama beauty content, that is, content that combines drama and beauty makeup to attract target users. According to statistics, the number of fans of "Niti guli" in Tik Tok has exceeded 4 million, and there are frequent explosions of praise exceeding 10,000. Among the fans, women account for 91%, and the fans aged 25-30 are the most, attracting more accurate fans.

Tik Tok Red Man "Naiti guli" User Portrait Source: Kasi Data

What is the difference between drama beauty content? How to combine the plot and beauty makeup, and what are the conditions for the combination?

Sort it out as follows:

First of all, from the content theme,At present, most of the beauty content is centered on the product or makeup, and the content revolves around the product and makeup, such as product evaluation, composition analysis and makeup display. However, the story-based beauty content focuses on the story, and the audience’s focus is on the development of the story, not the products that occasionally appear in the story. The product only plays an auxiliary role in the content and belongs to soft implantation.

Secondly, from the perspective of content style,Take "Naiti guli" as an example. The content style of this red man is funny. Aside from the shell of the beauty video, the core is actually funny, and the overall rhythm, narrative structure and language style are consistent with the standards of high-quality funny jokes. Although most of the other types of beauty content are relaxed and lively, the main attraction of the content is still focused on the red man. Compared with the well-designed funny story, the personal baggage and jokes of the red man are still less attractive.

Finally, from the perspective of human risk,Because the beauty category is in the deep red sea, the competition is fierce and the homogenization is serious, it is very difficult to stand out from the crowd by the content itself, and the popularity of most beauty celebrities is inseparable from the help of people. They are either honest and frank, professional or generous, and act as fans’ friends, girlfriends and other roles. All kinds of people make the content more attractive, and also strengthen the bond of trust between celebrities and fans.

However, the persona is risky. Once the words and actions of the red man go beyond the audience’s cognitive range of his persona, the trust relationship established between the two parties will be greatly dealt a blow, and it will also have a significant negative impact on the content brand. The drama beauty reds mainly appear as roles, and people are set as roles, not the reds themselves. Therefore, to a certain extent, the risk of setting up drama beauty content is relatively low.

To sum up, the story-based beauty content is the focus of the audience, so the content is more ornamental and interesting, and the audience’s acceptance is obviously higher in product implantation. In addition, it has advantages over other types of beauty content in terms of personal risk. However, it is precisely because this kind of content emphasizes the plot and ignores the product that the requirements for screenwriters are also higher. It is necessary to ensure the integrity and interest of the plot, but also to implant the product softly, which is a great test of the screenwriter’s basic skills.

Plot and beauty, two fields that seem to span a long time, can be skillfully integrated and integrated, which is mainly due to their strong compatibility.

First of all, as an important form of content expression accepted by all kinds of people, plot has the natural attribute of being integrated with all kinds of content and undertaking all kinds of advertisements. For example, food+plot gave birth to Midnight Food Store.

Secondly, in the field of beauty, although a lot of beauty content emphasizes the detailed display of products, even the description of ingredients and characteristics, with the increasingly fragmented habit of people receiving information, the KOL short video platform is less than one minute long, which is not suitable for the development of product detailed introduction content.

Omitting details and processes, only showing the final results, and pursuing visual effects are favored by people. Therefore, more and more people are gradually paying attention to the product effect exposure, especially lipstick, which can see the effect on the upper lip, without too many explanations from celebrities. This product feature, which only needs exposure to achieve the purpose of planting grass and has low requirements for detail display, accelerates the cross-border integration of beauty and drama.

On the one hand, the content of drama is highly compatible; on the other hand, the content of details of beauty products is seriously homogeneous, and the platform duration also limits the introduction of product details to a certain extent. Under this background, the requirements for details of beauty products are gradually decreasing. Two reasons have contributed to the integration of plot and beauty makeup.

Beauty category has always been the Red Sea of the content industry, and it is difficult to stand out from the crowd by following the existing stylized gameplay. The popularity of "Naiti guli" is an important signal, and the cross-border cooperation of plot and beauty can spark different sparks and bring freshness to the audience. This kind of content is a good breakthrough for creators who are ready to enter the industry or prepare for transformation.

Author: Kasi Data, WeChat official account (ID: caasdata6)

This article was originally published by @ Kasi Data. Everyone is a product manager. Reprinting is prohibited without permission.

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